Violence and Democratic Backsliding in the Philippines under Duterte

Abstract

The administration of former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte oversaw a systematic and widespread campaign of mass violence against civilians, raising concerns over potential crimes against humanity. While repressive violence often intensifies alongside democratic decline, the relationship between state-led violence and democratic backsliding remains insufficiently understood, particularly in weak democracies such as the Philippines. Existing scholarship on democratic erosion predominantly emphasises the weakening of electoral competitiveness and institutional checks and balances, often neglecting the role of state violence in facilitating backsliding. This study contributes to the literature by examining the impact of Duterte’s anti-drug campaign on democratic decline in the Philippines, arguing that state-led mass killings functioned as a mechanism for autocratisation while circumventing institutional resistance due to strong public support. To assess the relationship between violence and democratic backsliding, this study compares measurements from multiple democracy datasets, including the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset and the Democratic Erosion Events Dataset (DEED). By incorporating state violence as an analytical variable, the study demonstrates that democratic erosion commenced earlier and persisted longer than typically recognised. The findings reveal that while standard indicators of backsliding emphasise electoral decline, violations of civil rights—such as extrajudicial killings—must be systematically integrated into democracy assessments, particularly in contexts where democratic quality is already fragile. The Philippine case provides broader theoretical insights into how state-sponsored violence, framed as an anti-crime campaign, enables democratic backsliding without direct electoral repression. The study underscores the necessity of more comprehensive measures of autocratisation that account for coercive tactics beyond electoral manipulation, particularly in hybrid or weakly institutionalised democracies. Future research should further investigate the role of state violence in shaping democratic trajectories, refining the methodological approaches used to capture its impact on governance and institutional stability.